Health & FitnessRiegel predictions

Running Pace Calculator

Enter any two of distance, time and pace — the third is calculated. The prediction table uses Riegel’s endurance exponent to estimate what a result at one distance implies at others.

Your Run

Fill in distance plus either time or pace; the missing one is solved.

Used when Custom is selected
km
RESULT
Pace per km
Pace per mile
Speed
Distance

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Pace and speed are the same fact, inverted

Pace is time per unit distance — minutes per kilometre. Speed is distance per unit time — kilometres per hour. Runners think in pace because it maps directly onto what a watch shows mid-run; cyclists think in speed. One is simply 60 divided by the other.

The Riegel formula, and where it breaks

Pete Riegel’s 1977 model predicts a time at a new distance from a known result: T₂ = T₁ × (D₂ / D₁)1.06. The exponent above 1 encodes the fact that you cannot hold short-race pace over long distances.

It is accurate within a factor of about three to four in distance. Predicting a marathon from a 5K stretches it well beyond that, and the estimate assumes marathon-specific endurance you may not have trained. Treat a Riegel marathon prediction from a short race as a ceiling, not a plan.

Even splits versus the reality of racing

This calculator assumes a constant pace. Almost no one races that way: most positive-split, running the second half slower. The exception is a well-executed marathon, where a slight negative split is the classic pattern for a good day. Use even-pace numbers as the target and expect drift.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I convert pace per kilometre to pace per mile?
Multiply by 1.609344. A 5:00/km pace is 8:03/mile. The calculator shows both, since race results and training plans often mix the two units.
Can I predict my marathon time from a half marathon?
Reasonably, yes — that is within Riegel’s reliable range. Doubling your half time and adding 10–20 minutes is the well-known rule of thumb and lands close to the Riegel figure. Predicting from a 5K is far less reliable.
What pace should I run my easy runs at?
Substantially slower than race pace — typically 60–90 seconds per kilometre slower than your 10K pace. The common error in amateur training is running easy days too hard, which limits recovery without adding fitness.
Why is my race time slower than the prediction?
Predictions assume equivalent training for the distance, favourable conditions and even pacing. Heat, hills, wind and a fast opening kilometre each cost time, and a marathon additionally demands fuelling that shorter races do not.